The Pill That Cures

This is a excerpt from MalaysiaKini, (a rather free from the Malaysian Government online newspaper), written by Josh Hong. (Chan's friend? )

Sixty-one years after its defeat in the Pacific War, Japan is finally set to be given a full ministry of defence, paving the path for it to become a “normal” country as many a hawkish politician in the land of the rising sun has been wishing.

On Thursday, the House of Representatives of the Japanese Diet passed a defence bill with a view to revising the Defence Agency Establishment Law, which would lead to the upgrading of the Defence Agency to a ministry. Once passed also by the House of Councilors, which is almost a done deal given the current political climate in the country, it will have far-reaching ramifications as far as Japan’s relations with its Asian neighbours are concerned.

Unlike Germany and its European allies, Japan has never sincerely come to terms with its colonial past, which has hindered a healthier and rational interaction between Tokyo and the regional capitals from emerging.

The Takasago people, one of the aboriginal ethnic groups in Taiwan, for instance, have been making effort to have the spirits of their ancestors who had fought for the imperial Japan in World War II removed from the highly controversial Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, to no avail. The Shintoist religious forces have refused to compromise because, according to Japanese customs, dead spirits cannot be separated. The Japanese state has, as always, chosen to stand idly by.

Ozaki Hotsuki, a critical Japanese writer, once reproached such incongruous behavior by saying that the religious leaders only allowed Japan’s colonial subjects to die as Japanese but not live as Japanese, far less as fellow human beings of dignity.

China, the de facto regional power, has also been using history as a pawn in dealing with Japan. Early last year, Beijing lent tacit support to a number of civic groups to take to the streets in protest of Tokyo’s history textbook revisions, successfully projected itself as the sole legitimate defender of Chinese interests.

Repairing the rift

The Chinese leaders have hoped to repair the tumultuous relationship with the Japanese after the departure of the troublesome Junichiro Koizumi as prime minister. Shinzo Abe, Koizumi’s anointed successor, seized the moment and visited Beijing on an ice-breaking trip without having to promise not to pay respects at the Yasukuni Shrine. That the Chinese leaders were willing to drop the very demand that they had made in regard to Koizumi goes to show the “flexibility” of the Chinese leadership. A number of pro-China commentators, always in service to their political masters, have argued that a little bit of leeway had to be given in order to put the vital Sino-Japanese relations back on the right track.

In any case, that the Defence Agency is set to become a ministry is a cause for concern. Adding fuel to the fire, Taro Aso, the firebrand foreign minister, reiterated Japan’s capabilities of producing nuclear weapons while ruling out the intention to do just that despite the recent testing of a nuclear bomb by North Korea.

Prior to that, Aso, along with Shoichi Nakagawa, Chairman of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s Policy Research Council, had opined that the time had come for Japan to open the debate over whether Japan should possess nuclear weapons.

What is most worrying is Abe’s refusal to distance himself from Taro and Nakagawa. Instead, he defended their right to speak in a private capacity, stating that discussions on important issues should not be stifled. After all, Abe has been known to be as nationalist as his predecessor – if not more.

Nuclear possibilities

Much as Israel, Japan’s sophisticated nuclear industry is a given fact. Alarmed by the increasing conservative political climate and the growing siege mentality of the ordinary Japanese living in an uncertain age, Ichiyo Muto, a renowned pacifist, told me Japan had explored nuclear possibilities in the past, only to come to the conclusion that such endeavour was not necessary so long as Washington remained committed to defending Tokyo.

Which is the reason why US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has been quick to lance the boil over Aso’s nuclear talk. Rice has called on Tokyo not to react to Pyongyang by pursuing its own nuclear weapons, and reaffirmed Japan’s position under the US’ nuclear umbrella by saying that Washington would use the “full range” of powers to defend its ally.

However, Aso’s fiery remarks are only likely to be phony at best. As things stand now, a recalcitrant North Korea is the only real threat to Japan’s security, over which the combined influence of Tokyo and Washington is minimal. The only country that can exert real leverage on Pyongyang is, like it or not, Beijing. Aso’s repeated verbal threats are hence targeted at his Chinese counterparts as he seeks to increase the pressure on Beijing for swift and effective actions over the issue.

Fully aware of their limited role, the Japanese and the Americans are happy to leave the hot potato in the hands of the Chinese. The Chinese leadership is now finding itself in an unenviable situation of having to produce greater and more positive outcome through the six-party talks, failing which China’s credentials as a regional power to reckon with will be put in serious doubt.

Aso, being a seasoned politician, should know better than anyone else the factors that conspire against Japan becoming a nuclear power. Once armed with nuclear powers, Japan would be able to wrest free of US control, something that the Americans are not keen to see. A nuclear-armed Japan is also certain to find itself more isolated in a region that is known for power competition that remains complicated by history issues.

Last but not least, Japan, being formed of islands devoid of vast hinterland, and plagued by its dense populations in the urban areas, is an easy target for retaliation from its hostile neighbours – whoever they may be.

The Sinking of Japan, a blockbuster disaster novel in the 1970s, depicts the horrible physical disappearance of Japan into the seas. Both Abe and Aso must have read the novel when they were younger. A nuclear-armed Japan will only quicken the materialization of this otherwise entertaining fantasy.